Will you owe a penalty under Obamacare?

No longer a federal penalty, but some states impose a penalty on uninsured residents

Although there is no longer an individual mandate penalty – or "Obamacare penalty" – at the federal level, some states have implemented their own individual mandates and associated penalties. They include Massachusetts, New Jersey, California, Rhode Island, and the District of Columbia.

2014-2018: Everything you need to know about the federal individual mandate penalty

Although the ACA included provisions to make it easier to buy health insurance – including Medicaid expansion, premium subsidies, and guaranteed-issue coverage – it also included an individual mandate that requires Americans to purchase health coverage or face a tax penalty, unless they were eligible for an exemption).

The Supreme Court just upheld the ACA. Should marketplace insurance buyers breathe a sigh of relief?

But the GOP tax bill that was signed into law in late 2017 repealed the individual mandate penalty, starting in 2019 (See Part VIII, Section 11081 of the text of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act). Although the law was enacted in 2017, there was a delay of more than a year before the Obamacare penalty repeal took effect, and people who were uninsured in 2018—after the law was enacted—still had to pay the individual mandate penalty when they filed their tax returns in 2019.

The individual mandate penalty helped to keep premiums lower than they would otherwise have been. There was no Obamacare penalty back when insurers were allowed to reject applicants with pre-existing conditions, but with coverage now guaranteed-issue, it was important to have a mechanism to ensure that healthy people would remain in the pool of insureds. The individual mandate was part of that, but the ACA's premium subsidies have played an even larger role. These subsidies keep coverage affordable for most middle-class enrollees, regardless of whether they're healthy or not.

The Congressional Budget Office has estimated that premiums in the individual market will generally trend 10% higher without the individual mandate penalty than they would have been with the penalty.¹ Unsurprisingly, most of the rate filings for 2019 included a rate increase related to the elimination of the penalty.² That is now baked into the standard premiums going forward, so the higher rates apply in future years as well.

The individual mandate had long been the least-popular consumer-facing provision of the ACA,³ although most Americans already had health insurance before the ACA, and didn't need to worry about the penalty for being uninsured.

It's worth noting that the elimination of the individual mandate penalty was the crux of the Texas v. US / California v. Texas / Texas v. Azar lawsuit, which sought to overturn the entire ACA. But when the case reached the Supreme Court, the ACA was upheld.

Most Americans weren't affected by the penalty

Most Americans have health insurance.⁴ Even among those who were uninsured between 2014 and 2018 (when there was a federal penalty for not having coverage), penalty exemptions were more common than penalty assessments. The IRS reported that just 7.9 million tax filers were subject to the penalty in 2014 (out of more than 150 million returns⁵) while more than 12 million filers qualified for an exemption.⁶

Most Americans already get health insurance either from an employer or from the government (Medicaid, Medicare, VA); they didn't need to worry about the penalty because employer-sponsored and government-sponsored health insurance count as minimum essential coverage.

Individual market major medical plans available on or off-exchange are considered minimum essential coverage, and so are grandfathered plans and grandmothered plans. And although health care sharing ministries are not considered minimum essential coverage, people with sharing ministry coverage were eligible for one of the exemptions under the ACA.⁷

Plans that aren't considered major medical coverage are not subject to the ACA's regulations, and do not count as minimum essential coverage, meaning people were subject to the penalty if they relied on something like a short-term plan and were not otherwise exempt from the Obamacare penalty. Things like accident supplements and prescription discount plans may be beneficial, but they do not fulfill the requirement to maintain health insurance.

How big were the penalties?

The IRS reported that for tax filers subject to the penalty in 2014, the average penalty amount was around $210. That increased substantially for 2015, when the average penalty was around $470. The IRS published preliminary data showing penalty amounts on 2016 tax returns filed by March 2, 2017. At that point, 1.8 million returns had been filed that included a penalty, and the total penalty amount was $1.2 billion — an average of about $667 per filer who owed a penalty.

Although the average penalties are in the hundreds of dollars, the ACA's individual mandate penalty is a progressive tax: if a family earning $500,000 decided not to join the rest of us in the insurance pool, they would have owed a penalty of more than $16,000 for 2018. But to be clear, the vast majority of very high-income families do have health insurance.

For 2018, the penalty for a middle-income family of four earning $60,000 was $2,085 (the flat-rate penalty would have been used, because it was larger than the percentage of income penalty; see details below, under "how the penalty worked"). This is far less than the penalty a more affluent family would have paid based on a percentage of their income.

The penalty could never exceed the national average cost for a bronze plan, though. The penalty caps are readjusted annually to reflect changes in the average cost of a bronze plan:

• The IRS announced in Revenue Procedure 2015-15 that the maximum 2015 penalty was $2,484 for a single individual and $12,420 for a family of five or more (both slightly higher than the maximum penalty amounts for 2014).
• For 2016, Revenue Procedure 2016-43 increased the maximum penalty to $2,676 for a single individual, and $13,380 for a family of five or more, if they were uninsured in 2016.
• For 2017, Revenue Procedure 2017-48 increased the maximum penalty to $3,264 for a single individual, and $16,320 for a family of five or more. The significant rate increases that we saw for 2017 (roughly 25 percent) mean that the average bronze plan was quite a bit more expensive in 2017 than it was in 2016. And that means that the maximum penalty was also quite a bit higher.
• Rates increased considerably again for 2018, although the bulk of the rate increase was on silver plans (due to the elimination of federal reimbursement for cost-sharing reductions). According to Revenue Procedure 2018-43, the national average cost of a bronze plan increased to $3,396 in 2018 for a single individual and $16,980 for a family of five or more. This is the last year that the IRS had to calculate the national average cost of a bronze plan, since the federal individual mandate penalty no longer applies as of 2019. But several states have or are implementing individual mandates with maximum penalties based on the average local cost of a bronze plan.

The maximum penalties rarely applied to very many people, since most wealthy households were already insured.

No longer a question on federal tax return about health coverage (but it's still on some state returns, and Form 8962 is still applicable if you get a premium subsidy)

From 2014 through 2018, the federal Form 1040 included a line where filers had to indicate whether they had health insurance for the full year (see the upper right corner, under the spaces for Social Security numbers).

But since 2019, Form 1040 has no longer included that question, as there's no longer a penalty for being without coverage.

But state tax returns for DC, Massachusetts, New Jersey, California, and Rhode Island do include a question about health coverage. And several other states — that do not have individual mandate penalties — also ask about health coverage on the state tax return, to connect uninsured residents with available coverage.

In addition, nothing has changed about premium subsidy reconciliation on the federal tax return. People who receive a premium subsidy (or those who enroll through the exchange in a full-price plan but want to claim the subsidy at tax time) continue to use Form 8962 to reconcile their subsidy. Exchanges, insurers, and employers will continue to use Forms 1095-A, B, and C to report coverage details to enrollees and the IRS.