In this article
- Who’s experiencing Marketplace sticker shock?
- Review the available plans. (Those won’t change.)
- Understand your income as a percentage of the federal poverty level
- Understand how HSA contributions can affect your MAGI
- Update your Marketplace account
- Remember the Dec. 15 deadline (in most states) and stay tuned for updates
The Marketplace subsidy enhancements introduced by the American Rescue Plan expired at the end of 2025, after Congress failed to extend them. This has resulted in significantly higher after-subsidy health insurance premiums for most Marketplace enrollees. (Congress is still considering this issue as of January 2026, so the subsidy structure could potentially change.)1
If you’re feeling sticker shock because your premiums increased significantly, here’s a look at your options now as we head into 2026.
Who’s experiencing Marketplace sticker shock?
For the 93% of Marketplace (exchange) enrollees who were receiving premium subsidies (premium tax credits) for 2025 coverage,2 the after-subsidy premium for the benchmark (second-lowest-cost Silver) plan was projected to increase by 114% in 2026,3 due to the expiration of the subsidy enhancements. (Actual net premium increases are likely to end up being smaller than that, because of people downgrading to cheaper plans during open enrollment.)4
For the 7% of Marketplace enrollees who didn’t get subsidies in 2025 – plus anyone who buys ACA-compliant individual market coverage outside the exchange – full-price (unsubsidized) premiums increased by an average of 26%,5 although this varied considerably from one policy to another.
There were more than 23 million people with Marketplace coverage in 2025,2 and many have likely experienced some degree of sticker shock over their 2026 premiums.
In most states, open enrollment ends on January 15, 2026. (Some state-run Marketplaces have a later deadline, and open enrollment ended in December in Idaho). That could potentially change if legislation is enacted to extend the subsidy enhancements, but it’s the deadline that people should have in mind for now.
Here are five things to keep in mind if you haven’t picked a plan yet for 2026, or if you let your 2025 coverage auto-renew (which might have involved the Marketplace selecting a new plan for you if your 2025 plan wasn’t available for renewal), or if you picked a new plan in an effort to lower your premiums due to the expiration of the subsidy enhancements.
1. Review the available plans. (Those won’t change.)
The 2026 plan year is already underway, and the individual market plans for 2026 were finalized months ago. So although after-subsidy premiums could still change if Congress takes action to reinstate the subsidy enhancements or a modified version of them,6 the coverage details of the available plans will not change.
So if you haven’t picked a plan yet, or if your coverage auto-renewed and you haven’t comparison shopped to see what your options are, you still have time to select a plan for the rest of 2026 (unless you’re in Idaho, where enrollment now requires a special enrollment period). Make sure you understand details like deductibles, out-of-pocket maximums, covered drug lists, and provider networks, to get an idea of what your coverage options are for the rest of 2026.
2. Understand your income as a percentage of the federal poverty level (FPL)
Your eligibility for 2026 Marketplace premium subsidies is based on how your projected 2026 household income compares to the 2025 federal poverty level. (Note that these numbers are higher in Alaska and Hawaii.)7
Here’s how household income (MAGI) is calculated under the ACA.
Because Congress has not extended the subsidy enhancements, enrollees are no longer eligible for premium subsidies if their 2026 household income is more than 400% of the 2025 FPL. If you’re in the continental United States, here’s what 400% of FPL amounts to in annual income, for 2026 coverage:
- Household of one: $62,600
- Household of two: $84,600
- Household of three: $106,600
- Household of four: $128,600
- Household of five: $150,600
- Household of six: $172,600
This is why you’re seeing no subsidy at all in the Marketplace if your projected household income is above those amounts. (If you’re in Connecticut, New Jersey, or New Mexico, you may still see some subsidies, as those states have state-funded subsidies that extend to enrollees with incomes above 400% of FPL.)
3. Understand how HSA contributions can affect your MAGI
Consider a 60-year-old living in Atlanta, earning $63,000. (Here’s how ACA-specific modified adjusted gross income, or MAGI, is calculated.) At that income level, they’re just a little above 400% of FPL,8 which means they won’t qualify for any subsidy at all in 2026 (unless Congress in some way reinstates the subsidy enhancements). Without a subsidy, the lowest-cost plan available to this person costs $1,079/month in premiums in 2026,9 which amounts to more than 20% of their household income.
But that lowest-cost option is a Bronze plan, and all Bronze Marketplace plans allow enrollees to contribute to a health savings account (HSA) in 2026. So if this person enrolls in that Bronze plan, opens an HSA, and contributes just $1,000 to the HSA in 2026, that would bring their household income down to $62,000, which is just a little under 400% of FPL.
That will allow them to avoid the “subsidy cliff,” and will make them eligible for a significant subsidy. Their after-subsidy premium for that lowest-cost plan will drop to just $262/month – simply because they enrolled in an HSA-eligible plan, opted to contribute $1,000 to an HSA, and thus reduced their MAGI by $1,000.
That $1,000 HSA contribution (which is still their own money, and available at any time to pay for medical expenses on a pre-tax basis)10 results in them qualifying for a subsidy of $817/month, which covers the majority of the cost of their coverage.
This is just one example, and the specifics will vary depending on where you live, how old you are, how much you earn, and how much you’re able to contribute to an HSA. The maximum allowable HSA contribution for 2026 is $4,400 if you have self-only coverage, and $8,750 if your HSA-eligible health plan also covers at least one additional family member.11
We recommend that you speak with a tax advisor if you’re considering this strategy, as there are tax ramifications when you make adjustments to your income. You should be aware of all of them before making any financial decisions.
4. Update your Marketplace account
Now is a good time to make sure your Marketplace account is up to date. If there have been any changes in your household or your income since the last time you updated your Marketplace account, be sure to report those changes to the Marketplace.
It’s particularly important to project your income as accurately as possible for 2026 and keep the Marketplace updated if you realize mid-year that your income projection wasn’t correct. This is because 2026 is the first year when there’s no cap on how much excess advance premium tax credit (APTC) has to be repaid to the IRS.
If you underestimate your income and then end up earning more than you projected, there will be no limit on how much excess APTC you have to repay to the IRS when you file your taxes in early 2027.
5. Remember the Jan. 15 deadline (in most states) and stay tuned for updates
Unless you live in Idaho, you have until at least January 15 (or later in some states) to pick a Marketplace plan that will take effect on February 1, 2026.
With that deadline upon us, now’s the time to pick a plan if you haven’t already done so. However, 2026 subsidy amounts may still change, even now that the plan year is underway, as Congress continues to consider the issue of subsidy enhancements.
The House has passed a bill to reinstate and extend them for three years, although the Senate is working on legislation that would include modifications to the subsidy enhancements. We don’t know whether the two chambers will reach an agreement, and if so, what the details would involve.6
Regardless of whether you picked a plan back in November, or you’re picking one now, it’s important to stay tuned to see if anything changes. If Congress reinstates the subsidy enhancements or a modified version of them, they may open a special enrollment period that would allow consumers to enroll or pick a different plan. So consumers should continue to pay close attention to the news around this issue and any communications they might get from the Marketplace.
One other important point to keep in mind: If you already have coverage that took effect in January and you’re considering a different plan that will have a February 1 effective date, your 2026 out-of-pocket costs will reset to zero under the new plan. So if you’re incurring any out-of-pocket costs in January, you’ll want to keep that in mind when deciding whether you want to select a different plan to cover you for the rest of 2026.
Louise Norris is an individual health insurance broker who has been writing about health insurance and health reform since 2006. She has written hundreds of opinions and educational pieces about the Affordable Care Act for healthinsurance.org.
Footnotes
- “House Passes Extension Of Obamacare Health Insurance Subsidies” HuffPost. Jan. 8, 2026 ⤶
- “Effectuated Enrollment: Early 2025 Snapshot and Full Year 2024 Average” Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services. July 24, 2025 ⤶ ⤶
- “ACA Marketplace Premium Payments Would More than Double on Average Next Year if Enhanced Premium Tax Credits Expire” KFF.org. Sep. 30, 2025 ⤶
- “IMPORTANT: *Official* avg. 2026 premium hikes will likely be lower than KFF's 114% estimate for three critical reasons…” ACA Signups. Jan. 2, 2026 ⤶
- “ACA Insurers Are Raising Premiums by an Estimated 26%, but Most Enrollees Could See Sharper Increases in What They Pay” KFF.org. Oct. 28, 2025 ⤶
- “House passes bill to extend enhanced ACA subsidies 3 years” HuffPost. Jan. 8, 2026 ⤶ ⤶
- “2025 Poverty Guidelines” U.S. Department of Health & Human Services. Accessed Oct. 30, 2025 ⤶
- “2025 Poverty Guidelines” U.S. Department of Health & Human Services. Accessed Oct. 29, 2025 ⤶
- “Estimate your premiums for 2026” (zip code 30033) Georgia Access. Accessed Oct. 29, 2025 ⤶
- “Publication 969: Health Savings Accounts and Other Tax-Favored Health Plans” Internal Revenue Service. Accessed Oct. 30, 2025 ⤶
- “Revenue Procedure 2025-19” Internal Revenue Service. Accessed Oct. 29, 2025 ⤶